Articles written by GRIT Capital - Benzinga

Score One For Crypto Enthusiasts

|Recent economic data is encouraging but Citi’s Economic Surprise Index suggests that the trend could be changing:

Stocks Like Rising Yields, Wait What?

|Stakes couldn’t be higher for NVIDIA. Earnings expected to hit $2.07 (up +305% from $0.51 last year). It’s been the best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, up +212%. If they miss the entire stock market could go down.

Reverse Clickbait

|Over 86% of the S&P 500 year-to-date return has come from valuation expansion. The S&P 500 is now trading at 19x P/E (forward), the long-term average is 15.6 and at the end of 2022 it was below 17x. Can this continue?

Trouble Brewing In China

|Good Morning! Legendary investor Ray Dalio who has +$3B invested in Chinese businesses says the country is “overdue” for a debt shake-up. China has almost doubled its debt over the past 5 years. Debt-to-GDP is now at a record 281.5% 🙈

US Oil Inventories Drop By Most On Record

|Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is making a bold move! He's shorting 30-year Treasury bills using options, and he predicts yields could skyrocket to 5.5% 'soon'. His strategy is a hedge against the impact of long-term rates on stocks in “a world with persistent 3% inflation.”

Q2 GDP: Choo Choo

|The FED might be winning the war on inflation. Their preferred metric for inflation the PCE Inflation Index surprised below expectations at 4.1%. PCE inflation is now at the lowest reading since 2021. The trend is finally our friend!

We'll Do It Live

|Hold onto your coffee cups, 'cause we're kicking off the day with GREAT news! GDP soars to 2.4% in Q2 2023. This is up from 2% in Q1. The “for sure recession" is nowhere in sight - it vanished like a magician's trick!

Earnings Reactions Are Upside-down

|Inflation was out of control, interest rates soared, bonds screamed caution and a recession seemed imminent. Yet, here we are, 20 months later with the S&P 500's bear market nearing a full recovery, just 260 points short. Talk about market resilience!

Bad Breadth Is Masking Opportunities

|Back from vacation and diving into a big week. The S&P 500 is just over 5% away from hitting its all-time high, FED's poised for a rate hike, second quarter GDP and big tech earnings are rolling in. Coffee in hand? Let's conquer this week together!

The Retail Army Is VERY Bullish

|Do with this information as you see fit: Jim Cramer said this week he doesn’t see a recession in the cards for the US…

Institutional Vs. Retail Investors: Who Ya Got?

|Are we inching closer to the elusive “soft landing”? An increasing share of global fund managers sees it as the most likely outcome over the next 12 months:

What The Nasdaq-100 Will Look Like After July 24

|Economists expect this morning’s retail sales data to show the strongest growth since January. If a recession is coming, somebody forgot to tell the consumer!

Economists Push Out Recession Forecasts... Again

|Last quarter's earnings day moves were 3.6x the average daily move. Will we see more of the same this season?

The Rally Is Broadening

|June CPI inflation came in below expectations at 3.0% versus estimates of 3.1% and down from 4.0% in May. The core index came in below 5% which is great news. I think the FED still raises rates in July but it could be the last hike this year!

Wall Street's Biggest Bull Gets More Bullish

|Market veteran Ed Yardeni says the U.S. economy has shifted from a “rolling recession” to a “rolling recovery”. He says large parts of the residential real-estate sector had been in a recession for eight quarters. But a sharp rise of 12% in new home sales (among other sectors) in May marked the start of the recovery.

Short Week, Big Data

|I hope you all enjoyed a relaxing Independence Day and Canada Day long weekend. Despite everything the stock market has been unbelievably resilient. The NASDAQ posted its strongest first 6 months of the year since the early 1980s. What do we think the next 6 months hold?

Strong Economy Gives Fed Ammo To Hike

|Especially Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) which is on the cusp of making history by becoming a $3 trillion market cap company. Apple hit $3 trillion in early 2022, but didn't manage to close there. The stock is up 51% year-to-date. Will Apple keep soaring to new heights?

Is A VIX Floor Approaching?

|The housing market is resilient. Sales of newly constructed homes were up 12.2% in May from April, and up 20% from a year ago. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates don’t want to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate according to Bloomberg. Will this continue?

Positioning Is Becoming Less Bullish

|SEC approves first ever leveraged Bitcoin Futures ETF. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 83% in the past 6 months. Is it going higher?

EM To Overtake US Market By 2030

|It’s been an amazing first half of the year for the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ 100 index is on track for best first half to a year ever. Can the run continue?