Good Morning Everyone!

Except those mistaking leverage for genius.

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Prices as of 4 pm ET, 11/18/22; % YTD

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MARKET UPDATE

Fed talk

• Bostic favors slower pace of hikes

  • Sees another 75 to 100 bps

  • Favors ending 4.75-5%

• Bullard more hawkish

  • Last week called for 5 to 5.25% (at least)

Leading Economic Indicator

• Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators have fallen for 8 consecutive months

• Consumer worsening outlook on high inflation, rising interest rates

• Declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing

Dollar short positions increasing

• Fund managers most bearish USD since July 2021

• Hedge funds 5th consecutive week of selling

China re-opening uncertainty

• 3 Covid deaths over weekend

• Rumored test-case city has suspended schools, locked down universities, asked residents stay home 5 days

• Increasing possibility re-tightening, further lockdowns

Crude   $79.5

• Goldman lowers Q4 forecast for prices, $110 -> $100

• China lockdowns weighing on demand

Disney DIS

• Bob Iger back in as CEO

• Bob Chapek OUT

• Iger previously spent 15 years as DIS chief (2005-2020)

• Left ~1 year ago

• 2-yr contract: 2 goals

  • Set strategic direction for renewed growth

  • Develop successor to lead company

Domino's Pizza DPZ + General Motors GM

• Domino's to buy 800 branded EVs (Chevy Bolt)

• "…we will have the biggest fleet of electric vehicles in the pizza industry, period" - DPZ CEO

• Others pushing for EV fleets: AMZN FDX PEP UBER

Earnings

• Niu Technologies NIU

• Futu Holdings FUTU

• JM Smucker SJM

• Jacobs J

• Zoom ZM

• Dell DELL

• Urban Outfitters URBN

• Agilent A

• ZTO Express ZTO

• StoneX SNEX

• Symbotic SYM

CRYPTO UPDATE

SBF/FTX corner

• Top 50 FTX creditors owed ~$3.1 billion

  • 2 creditors owed +$200 million each

• Optimism for creditors

  • From new CEO John J. Ray:

“We are pleased to learn that many regulated or licensed subsidiaries of FTX, within and outside of the United States, have solvent balance sheets, responsible management and valuable franchises”

• SBF’s law firm terminates representation

  • Related to SBF’s “incessant and disruptive tweeting”

• The tangled FTX web: