Why Airtel Shares Are Volatile Even After Posting 158% Surge In Q1 Net Profit

Airtel‘s share price was volatile on Tuesday morning after the company’s June quarter results failed to impress investors.

What Happened: The telco posted a net profit of ₹4,159.9 crore for the quarter, marking a 158% increase from ₹2,072 crore in the same quarter last year.

This bottom line was bolstered by a one-time net exceptional gain of around ₹735 crore. Revenue for the quarter was ₹38,506 crore, up 2.4% from ₹37,599 crore in the previous year, aligning closely with street estimates of ₹38,567 crore.

Net profit also exceeded analyst estimates of ₹3,558 crore. Revenue from India business was at ₹29,046 crore, up 10.1% year-over-year.

The average revenue per user (ARPU) stood at ₹211. The company’s overall customer base stands at 56.8 crore across 16 countries, with 40.9 crore users in India.

Brokerage Reactions: Macquarie maintained a “neutral” rating on Airtel with a target price of ₹1,280. The firm notes a softer growth momentum, with a beat on profit after tax, attributed to one-offs.

The expansion of Airtel India’s EBITDA margins is primarily driven by lower network costs, the analysts said. However, Macquarie believes that a miss on ARPU could negatively impact short-term sentiment.

See Also: HUDCO Signs MoU With RITES For Consultancy Services

UBS also maintained a “neutral” rating with a target price of ₹1,530. The brokerage describes the quarter as muted, with attention now focused on the potential impact of tariff hikes in the upcoming quarters.

The global brokerage highlighted the importance of updates on the enterprise business, which has underperformed expectations in recent quarters. The analysts noted that Q1 india mobile performance was in line.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its “equal-weight” rating on Bharti Airtel with a target price of ₹1,330. The analysts said that Q1 results were in line with expectations.

The brokerage also highlighted that Airtel’s India mobile services’ EBITDA beat estimates, driven by better ARPU and tight control on costs. Additionally, capex came in lower than the brokerage expectations and net debt declined quarter on quarter.

Citi maintained a “buy” rating on Airtel with a target price of ₹1,750. The brokerage house reported that consolidated revenue and EBITDA, both up 2% quarter on quarter, were slightly below estimates (1-2%) due to misses in Africa and business segments.

Encouragingly, India’s capex showed signs of moderation, consistent with past management commentary. This improvement in India’s capex drove better free cash flow generation along with deleveraging.

Jefferies also maintained a “buy” rating with a target price of ₹1,760. The research firm described the Q1 performance as steady, with positive surprises in the mobile and homes segments and free cash flow (FCF) generation.

Despite a strong growth outlook for India mobile and homes, Jefferies cut consolidated revenue and EBITDA estimates by 1%-3% to account for potential SIM consolidation and weaker performance in the enterprise and Africa segments.

Price Action: Airtel’s share price was trading almost flat at ₹1,466.55 in early trade on Tuesday.

Read Next: Nikkei Recovers 10% After Historic Low, Asian Peers and US Futures Follow Suit