Analysts Expect ONGC's Volume To Ramp Up, With As Much As 21% Upside

ONGC shares gave up early gains to trade flat on Wednesday morning even though brokerages were impressed by the company's results for the March quarter and its volume forecast.

What Happened: ONGC's net profit for the March quarter rose 78% year on year to ₹11,526.53 crore. The company's revenue gained marginally to ₹1.66 lakh crore against ₹1.64 lakh crore a year ago. EBITDA jumped 63.61% to ₹25,772 crore. The company also declared a dividend of ₹2.50 per equity share.

Brokerage Views: Motilal Oswal retained a "buy" call with a target price of ₹340, implying an upside of 21%. The brokerage increased the total production assumption for FY25 and FY26 by 2% and 3%, respectively. ONGC guided a 6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the production volume over the next three years.

This growth will likely be driven by rising production from its offshore deepwater asset in the Godavari Delta, Daman upside development and the monetisation of stranded gas reserves, the brokerage added. 

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CLSA also has a "buy" call with a target price of ₹330 on the stock. The standalone profit for the March quarter was ahead of the brokerage's estimates on higher crude sails despite a lower tax-adjusted realisation.

CLSA also pointed out ONGC management's confidence in driving production growth over the next three years, highlighting that the company will look to ramp up production from the Godavari delta asset in the second half of FY25.

Price Action: ONGC stock was trading at ₹279.90, trading almost flat in the early Wednesday morning session. 

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