Elon Musk is backing a bold idea: a $5,000 refund for American taxpayers. Sounds great, but there's a catch—Congress isn't on board, and since they control federal spending, it's unclear how this could actually happen as reported by Business Insider.

Musk, Trump, and the $2 Trillion Question

At an investor conference in Miami on Feb. 19, U.S President Donald Trump mentioned the concept, saying, “There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20% of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency savings to American citizens and 20% goes to paying down debt, because the numbers are incredible, Elon,” per Reuters.

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This all ties back to DOGE, a temporary agency created by Trump via executive order. The goal? Slash $2 trillion from federal spending—an amount experts say is wildly unrealistic. The likelihood of hitting that target is slim, especially given that the largest federal expenses—Social Security, Medicare, and defense—are largely untouchable.

Musk, a senior White House adviser and major donor to Trump's reelection campaign, has been one of the biggest champions of this initiative. On Feb. 18, he took to X to announce his discussions with Trump about returning government savings directly to taxpayers. 

This "DOGE Dividend" was first detailed by James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria and an advisor to Musk's government savings project. The plan calls for taking 20% of the proposed $2 trillion savings and distributing it to approximately 79 million U.S. tax paying households, which would amount to about $5,000 per household. 

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However, lower-income Americans who do not pay net federal income taxes would be excluded from receiving the DOGE dividend, as per NBC News.

But can $2 trillion in savings actually happen? Experts doubt it. “You can save some money, but relative to the overall federal budget, you’re talking about a relative pittance,” said Matt Dallek, a historian at George Washington University.

Trump has already tried slashing spending by eliminating thousands of government jobs, shutting down the U.S. Agency for International Development, and scaling back the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. However, these moves appear more symbolic than financially impactful.

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DOGE claims to have saved $65 billion, but a closer look tells a different story. PBS News reported that the real savings, after analyzing the reported figures, amounted to only $2 billion—far short of the trillions needed for the refund plan.

Legally, the administration cannot issue direct payments without congressional approval. Historically, similar stimulus payments—such as those during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis—required authorization from Congress.

And then there's the issue of inflation. “There’s no need to send ‘dividend checks.’ The dividend we get from slashing spending is that it brings inflation into check,” Preston Brashers, a tax policy researcher at the Heritage Foundation warned on X.

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