Copper is red-hot, and so are ETFs that track the industrial metal.

Prices rocketed to new records as traders responded to increasing talks of the U.S. imposing hefty tariffs on copper imports in the near future — several months before the schedule originally anticipated, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter.

The news rippled across global markets, sending U.S.-listed copper ETFs to record highs and fueling concerns of inflation and supply scarcity.

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Copper ETFs Break Records

The copper price rally propelled ETFs tracking the metal to their highs. The $200.7 million United States Copper Index Fund CPER rose more than 3% on Wednesday before backing off, taking year-to-date gains to 30% (as of writing, YTD gains is 27%). The more volatile USCF Daily Target 2X Copper Index ETF CPXR, which started in January and seeks to replicate twice the daily return of copper futures, reached another all-time high — 45% since it started. It has since retreated slightly and currently stands at 37.64% gains since inception.

Investors have been rushing into copper ETFs during the price spike. CPER experienced $18.5 million in net inflows from March 13 to March 25, according to etf.com, indicating sustained interest in the metal. Copper miner ETFs have also reaped benefits from the spurt. The Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX, which owns leading mining stocks, has risen 7.6% year-to-date, helped by improving copper prices and investor appetite for mining stocks.

The Driving Force Behind The Fever

The copper tariff hype received traction following a report indicating President Donald Trump may impose a whopping 25% duties on import of all copper into the U.S. The gesture, allegedly sought to protect native production of minerals of paramount significance, forms a part of larger efforts toward diversifying American supply chains. Nevertheless, with the lengthy lead times necessitated to increase domestic mining capability, the short-term impact has been increased prices as vendors scramble to deliver copper into the U.S. prior to the imposition of tariffs, reported Bloomberg.

New York COMEX copper futures rose as high as 3.1% on Wednesday to a record high of $5.374 per pound before backtracking. The disparity between U.S. and world prices was stark — benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices temporarily dipped 2.2% to $9,893 a metric ton, widening the difference between the two markets to over $1,750 a ton. This arbitrage chance initiated a worldwide sprint to reroute cargoes to the U.S., leaving major consumer China short, per Bloomberg.

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Trade Wars, Global Supply Constraints

Copper is the newest front in the Trump administration’s relentless trade wars. The prospective tariffs follow previous tariffs on steel, aluminum and other goods, which have had a supply chain-whipping effect around the world and increased U.S. manufacturers’ input costs. The threat of fresh trade barriers has again instigated fears of inflation, as increased raw material prices could percolate down through to consumers and businesses.

Supply limitations also still keep the market tight, noted The Globe And Mail. Declining investments in new mining operations and refining capacity have kept the sector fighting to meet demand. Even if new copper production in the U.S. increases, it will be several years before it can significantly contribute to supply, so prices can remain high for the foreseeable future.

What’s Next for Copper and ETFs?

With tariffs on the horizon, weeks away at worst, copper’s run could yet have some life left in it. Confirmation of duties could boost U.S. copper prices to even higher levels, increasing the arbitrage differential with the global markets. Players will be interested to see how supply chains recalibrate and whether China’s stimulus measures continue to underpin demand.

For ETF investors, the rally highlights the metal’s pivotal role in electrification, AI infrastructure and renewable energy transitions. Whether through direct copper ETFs such as CPER or mining-related funds such as COPX, the metal’s rebound offers both opportunities and threats as geopolitical and macroeconomic trends influence its path.

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