Axis Securities added HDFC Bank and HCLTech to its basket of top picks with a bull-case target of 27,000 for Nifty 50 by March 2025. 

What Happened: Axis Securities said it has added HDFC Bank and HCLTech to its top picks while recommending profit booking in CreditAccess Grameen and Bank of Baroda. Apart from these two stocks, the top picks include Coal India, ICICI Bank, SBI and 13 other stocks.

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Bull Case For Nifty: In the note, the research firm set a target of 27,000 for Nifty as it expects Nifty earnings to grow at 17-18% over FY23-26. This is based on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will have one rate cut in the remaining part of 2024. This will prompt a soft landing by the US economy. 

Soft landing is an economic slowdown that comes to an end without a recession phase. 

Furthermore, the research firm builds up this case based on the expectation of private capex picking up in India as political continuity brings policy stability and revival in rural consumption. 

Bear Case: In this scenario, Axis Securities has set a Nifty target of 19,700 which markets trade at average valuation due to political instability and policy deviation.

It also pointed out that markets are near the peak of rate cycle and chances to go wrong have increased and if things go South, it will result in recession in developed markets which will affect export-oriented parts of the domestic market.

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