Reliance Industries is set to announce its second-quarter results for fiscal year 2025 (Q2FY25) on Monday, October 14.
What To Expect: ICICI Securities projects a sharp 9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) decline in Reliance’s oil to chemicals (O2C) segment earnings, driven by a decline of $0.8 per barrel in gross refining margins (GRMs), though marginally better petrochemical spreads may partly offset this.
Reliance Jio is expected to report a 6.6% quarter-on-quarter rise in EBITDA, while the retail segment’s EBITDA is forecast to remain flat. In upstream operations, a slight decline in production and a higher profit petroleum share to the government may dent margins.
Estimates | Revenue | EBITDA | Profit |
ICICI Sec | 2,40,500 | 39,500 | 15,400 |
PL Capital | 2,29,930 | 38,800 | 11,690 |
Emkay | 2,33,504 | 38,922 | 15,279 |
Kotak | 2,39,332 | 41,592 | 17,781 |
Motilal | 2,30,700 | 39,700 | 16,000 |
Average | 2,34,793 | 39,702 | 15,230 |
Overall, ICICI Sec expects consolidated EBITDA and profit after tax to rise 2% sequentially, though it expects a year-on-year decline of 4% and 11%, respectively.
Kotak Securities anticipates a 7% sequential rise in consolidated EBITDA, largely driven by a telecom tariff hike. Digital Services EBITDA is expected to increase by 10% quarter on quarter, while retail EBITDA is projected to rise by just 2% sequentially (down 1% year on year).
Kotak forecasts the O2C segment to post a 3% sequential rise in EBITDA, though it is expected to decline by 17% year on year. The exploration and production (E&P) segment is expected to be flat quarter on quarter but up 10% year on year.
Emkay Global expects O2C EBITDA to decline by 3% sequentially, while upstream EBITDA may fall 1%. Retail EBITDA is expected to increase 1% sequentially, and RJio's average revenue per user (ARPU) is forecast to rise 4% quarter on quarter, with Jio's EBITDA growing 6% quarter on quarter to ₹15,900 crore. The number of subscribers, however, is expected to decrease by 0.07 million in Q2FY25.
Price Action: Reliance’s share price was up 0.34% to trade at ₹2,753.55 as the markets opened on Monday.
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