Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black is still optimistic about Tesla Inc‘s TSLA Cybertruck serving as a key catalyst to the company’s earnings in 2025, conditional upon the company being able to scale production.

What Happened: As per Black’s estimates, the company currently produces 400 Cybertrucks per week which could scale to 1000/ week by the fourth quarter, taking total Cybertruck delivery numbers this year to about 30,000.

Provided the company is delivering these foundation series Cybertrucks for a profit of about $15,000, it could be worth $0.1/ share EPS for the year, Black said.

In 2025, Black sees Tesla delivering 100,000 Cybertrucks for a profit of $20,000 per vehicle, translating to $0.5/share in incremental EPS. Interestingly, Black’s delivery estimates are still significantly lower than Musk’s Cybertruck delivery target of 250,000 vehicles for 2025.

Black currently maintains a price target of $250 for Tesla, significantly higher than the $175.66 the stock closed at on Wednesday.

Black expects Cybertruck will have a positive “halo” effect on Tesla’s entire lineup, surging delivery volumes similar to the impact of the Model Y launch in 2020. The Model Y launch led to a substantial increase in volume growth from 36% in 2020 to 87% in 2021, resulting in a seven-fold surge in Tesla's stock.

In December, days after Cybertruck’s first deliveries, Black noted that consumer interest in Cybertruck is “insane.” Celebrity endorsement of the Cybertruck is also a big potential positive, Black said on Wednesday, referring to celebrities including Beyonce and Kim Kardashian who have taken delivery of the stainless steel vehicle.

Price Action: Tesla shares closed up 2.5% on Wednesday at $175.66. However, the stock is down nearly 29.3% year-to-date, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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