U.S. consumers are feeling the pressure from years of rising costs and are now facing uncertainty about the future of the economy. The latest sign of a pressured consumer is a drop in the number of Americans making travel plans. 

A February survey by The Conference Board revealed that the number of Americans planning vacations in the next six months hit a 15-year low, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic. Apollo Global chief economist Torsten Slok cited policy uncertainty as a major factor influencing consumer behavior. 

“The biggest downside risk is that policy uncertainty could create a sudden stop in the economy where consumers stop buying cars, stop going to restaurants, and stop going on vacation, and companies stop hiring and stop doing capex," Slok said, per Fortune. 

Earlier this week, Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL lowered its first-quarter financial guidance and attributed the cuts to declining consumer confidence amid economic uncertainty leading to softness in domestic demand for travel. 

Goldman Sachs analysts released a note on Friday reframing the travel sector as consumer sentiment and corporate outlooks have declined.

"Over the last month, travel stocks have sold off materially," the analysts wrote, with airline, lodging and cruise stocks down 27%, 15% and 26%, respectively. 

Tariffs and DOGE Concerns: President Donald Trump has imposed significant tariffs on Mexico, Canada, the European Union and China which have led to retaliatory measures on U.S.-made goods. The escalating trade war has had immediate effects on the stock market, consumer sentiment and raised concerns about U.S. economic growth. 

Slok noted, “If policy uncertainty persists, consumers and firms may begin to hold back spending decisions." 

The Apollo economist also pointed to the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency as contributing to uncertainty through funding and workforce cuts. 

“Combined with DOGE-driven layoffs, this will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate," Slok warned. 

Stocks To Watch: Travel-related stocks, including Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG and Airbnb, Inc. ABNB are on watch as consumer sentiment declines amid economic uncertainty. 

Investors can monitor the airline industry through the U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS which tracks the sector. 

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