Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently made a big investment in Broadcom (AVGO), increasing his stake to 239,980 shares.
That stake, up 35% since September, is worth almost $56 million, one of the largest holdings in Druckenmiller’s private family fund. Now, Broadcom shares have surged almost 70% recently, so the stock is probably due for a breather.
But Druckenmiller’s big bet suggests there’s plenty of upside potential left.
I anticipate some consolidation into January and perhaps even February before the stock makes its next big move. That’s why the trade to make on Broadcom in the near term is a short iron condor.
Let me show you.
The short iron condor is a combination of a short call spread and a short put spread – a trade that sells premium on both the lower and upper bounds of price under the notion that prices remain rangebound in consolidation of strength.
As a result, the position loses the value we collected for selling it, and we are able to buy it back at a cheaper cost and keep the difference as profit for holding the spreads over time.
Here’s the trade structure I’m looking at:
- Sell to open 1 AVGO 17 Jan 260 calls
- Buy to open 1 AVGO 17 Jan 265 calls
- Buy to open 1 AVGO 17 Jan 220 puts
- Sell to open 1 AVGO 17 Jan 215 puts
At this writing, the credit collected is $1.67 and this number represents the total profit for the position.
The reason I chose these particular strikes is because of AVGO’s support and resistance levels. The relative resistance zone currently sits right around $250, and from here we should consolidate (move around within a range of price for a period of time). The relative support is near $225.
This strategy provides four outcomes to exit the trade:
- Buy back the iron condor as its value erodes – I like to collect 50% of the original collected premium, in general.
- Buy back the iron condor within ten days of expiration, especially if there is no movement in price.
- If the prices spike above the short strikes (in this case, above $260 or below $220) for more than 3 days: exit the position, irrespective of where profits sit.
- Buy back the iron condor if it moves above your threshold for loss – usually between 35%-50% above the collected premium.
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