Cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports next week and with a wide range of stock moves possible for after, let's consider setting up a double butterfly formation.
This kind of trade will allow us to profit from the stock moving in either direction.
Let me show you.
Trade structure – the long double butterfly setup
A double butterfly is ideal for larger anticipated moves into a catalyst like earnings. This setup is a combination of a long call butterfly and a long put butterfly.
A long call butterfly is the combination of a long call spread and a short call spread that share the same short strike. A long put butterfly is the combination of a long put spread and a short put spread that share the same short strike. They are positioned as two separate trades.
The long call butterfly (positioned for upside):
- Buy to open 1 PANW 20 Dec 450 calls
- Sell to open 2 PANW 20 Dec 460 calls
- Buy to open 1 PANW 20 Dec 470 calls
The long put butterfly (positioned for downside):
- Buy to open 1 PANW 20 Dec 330 puts
- Sell to open 2 PANW 20 Dec 320 puts
- Buy to open 1 PANW 20 Dec 310 puts
The long call butterfly holds a current debit of $0.97 at this writing and the long put butterfly holds a current debit of $0.67. Together, the total risk is the debit you have paid for both butterflies, or if you have a definitive bias, you can engage in only one of them.
The total potential profit is $10 (the distance between strikes) and the cost of the debit ($0.97 + $0.67=$1.64) $10 – $1.64 = $8.36
It is extremely rare to collect all this premium. Instead, I like to consider 200%-300% profit of the investment.
Trade Management
The relative resistance zone sits right around $400 but traders are pricing in a wider range particularly after looking at the last three earnings moves have either continued in the move or changed direction sharply. The relative support is near $330.
The strategy result provides only two choices to exit the trade:
- To sell the butterfly that is performing at your target parameters, particularly once the middle strike is tested.
- To sell the both butterflies right after earnings if the chart does nothing, or once your threshold for loss is hit. Mine is typically 65-70% with these positions.
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